If you’re like me, you keep waiting for Toyota to drop a new, tiny pickup. It has to come at some point, right? All the teasers, all the rumors… Surely they’ll amount to something. But as Toyota Motor North America COO Mark Templin recently explained, we may be waiting a while longer because the incentive isn’t strong enough—at least, not yet.
That might sound crazy considering how many people clamor at every mention of a compact Toyota truck. The truth of the matter, though, is that the market for one isn’t that big. “We invented the compact truck,” Templin reminded people at this week’s NADA Show in Las Vegas, as reported by Automotive News. “It’s a really intriguing segment for us, but the whole segment right now is 160,000 to 170,000.”
Templin’s estimate tracks with the combined sales total for Ford’s Maverick and the soon-to-be-gone Hyundai Santa Cruz. Of those sales, about 155,000 were Mavericks, so even with the Santa Cruz going away, it doesn’t leave much empty space for Toyota. It would have to count on conquesting customers from the Blue Oval, while also snagging buyers from other segments.
Therein lies the rub. The midsize truck category, which is the next size up from compacts like the Maverick, is ruled by none other than the Toyota Tacoma. We’re talking about a model that sold nearly 275,000 units last year. For Toyota to possibly cannibalize Tacoma performance for the sake of a new, likely lower-margin model seems trivial at best.
This is part of why Templin said to “be patient.” He added, “When the market’s right, we may have something.”
A key factor in whether or not Toyota adds a smaller truck to its lineup is what happens with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. A renegotiation of that pact is imminent, determining how much automakers and suppliers will have to pay in tariffs as they send components and cars across national borders. Templin strongly urged Washington D.C. to “take USMCA seriously” by saying “consumers lose” if the deal goes sour.
You might remember that another Toyota suit spoke on the small truck last year. They were more in the affirmative than Templin, who couched expectations by saying the manufacturer “may have something” when the market is right, rather than “we will.” Of course, the industrial and political climates are different now.
“Decisions have been made,” explained TMNA’s Head of Planning and Strategy Cooper Ericksen in an interview MotorTrend last May. “The question is when we can slot it in. It’s not a matter of ‘if,’ at this point. We’ve studied it a lot. We’re dedicated to it. We’re going to figure out how to make it work.”
Ericksen continued to say that a compact Toyota pickup “needs to be a workhorse.” Some reports have claimed it’ll be based on the Corolla, though I’m not sure if those two ideas can jive in the real world. I guess we’ll just have to see… eventually.
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