Tesla’s No-Good 2024 Expected to Get Worse With Q2 Results

Analysts are projecting as much as a 12% drop in deliveries year-over-year, for Tesla's second-straight quarter of decline.
A Tesla Model Y charges at a Supercharger in California.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Earlier this year Tesla reported a decline in deliveries for the first quarter of 2024, the first time that had happened since the onset of the global pandemic in 2020. Analysts suggested that this could be a wake-up call for the EV maker, beset by fading demand for its antiquated product lineup and sweeping layoffs. Nevertheless, shareholders chose overwhelmingly to reward CEO Elon Musk for this performance, voting in favor of a $56 billion pay package. Tomorrow, Tesla’s set to report its second-quarter results, and Wall Street does not anticipate it will be a step in the right direction.

In fact, the company is likely to call a second consecutive quarter of declining deliveries, per multiple outlets. The exact percentage drop year-over-year isn’t known yet—Bloomberg is projecting a 5.4% decrease, whereas Reuters estimates a 3.7% fall and Barclays, a staggering 11%. No matter the quantity, if Tesla does post another step backward this week, it’ll be the firm’s first consecutive quarters of lagging deliveries since 2012, when the Tesla Roadster was exiting production.

This time last July, Tesla said it delivered 466,000 of 480,000 built vehicles in the quarter. FactSet puts the number at 436,000 vehicles this go around via Quartz, and that’s already a 14,000-unit drop from what Wall Street expected just a week ago, and roughly 28,000 shy of estimates even before that. Meanwhile, Tesla stock is down a full quarter through 2024.

Trouble is, there’s really no silver lining Musk appears to be able to highlight at the moment, to assuage shareholders that relief is around the corner. Sure, Tesla still has plenty of Cybertruck reservations to move through from its most fervent customers. But beyond that, the $25,000 “Model 2” is dead in the water, the brand’s existing lineup is far too old in the face of highly competitive alternatives from “legacy” automakers as well as upstarts like Rivian, and public enthusiasm for electric cars on the whole has plateaued.

Couple all that with Tesla’s newest, most highly anticipated product being recalled every month for the most pathetic and alarming of reasons—as it tries to ramp up manufacturing, no less—and you have the makings of a dismal period for America’s EV darling. (We haven’t even discussed what’s going on in China yet.) Tesla is expected to announce its quarterly earnings tomorrow, July 2.

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