Market Research Study Predicts Eight Million Semi-Autonomous Vehicles Will Ship in 2025

A recent ABI Research report estimates that these eight million cars will exhibit level three, four, and five autonomous technology.

Jaguar

Based on the current level of technology available, the market research company ABI has made the claim that in 2025, there will be eight million cars built for the consumer market that display autonomous (or semi-autonomous) capabilities.

This eight million figure is part of a larger report ABI published about Advanced Driver Assistance Systems. The number encompasses cars that are SAE certified to have Level 3, 4, or 5 autonomy. Levels 3 and 4 describe systems that mostly navigate themselves, but human attention is still required to ensure safety. A Level 5 vehicle must be able to drive itself 100 percent of the time, no matter the condition. As of 2018, no production vehicle has been sold that even approaches level 5 autonomy.

Considering how far away we still are from self-driving cars, why has ABI landed on this eight million number? Well, it’s extrapolated data from the past few years. Up until recently, Level 1 autonomous capabilities were only available on high-end luxury cars. Now, companies like Ford, Toyota, Subaru, and many others, are making Level 1 tech such as adaptive cruise control, blind spot detection, and automatic braking available across their lineups. There's still a big gap between Levels 1 and 5, but making this technology widely accessible is a good first step toward self-driving cars.

A positive in the widespread use of these driver assistance systems is their hand in the advancement of technology. ABI predicts that these cars will up the demand for tech like Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensors. As a response, sensor manufacturers will then produce them more efficiently, in greater numbers. This will then cause the price of LiDAR sensors to go down, and make affordable autonomous technology more feasible for automakers.

This study certainly makes some good points, and there will probably be plenty of semi-autonomous vehicles on the road by 2025, but I think the dream of fully self-driving cars is still quite a bit further away. Have thoughts about the current or future state of autonomous technology? Post your response below to start discussion.